Despite the recent downpour over the Southern Highlands, drought conditions that have long plagued the region and state are far from over.
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The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) released its quarterly outlook for January to March, and according to climate modelling, there is only a low chance of recovery from drought over the next few months as tempertaures continue to rise to above average levels, while rainfall is expected to remain at average levels.
BoM senior hydrologist, Dr Paul Feikema, said much of the recent rainfall had fallen in areas less affected by drought conditions and above average rainfall would be needed for an extended period of time, several months at least, before drought conditions could be significantly improved.
“Even with the good recent rainfalls we’ve had on the eatsren coast, lower than average stream flows are more likely at nearly 75 per cent of locations across Australia,” he said.
“Temperature outlooks also suggest warmer than average days and nights during the first three months of 2019.”
BoM also reported that there was an increased likelihood of an El Niño forming, which would bring even drier and warmer conditions to most of eastern Australia is now at 70 per cent, which is about triple the normal risk.
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These conditions may lead to a more volatile rainfall pattern, with brief periods of high rainfall between spouts of dry conditions where ground vegetation is dried out under the summer sun.
Warmer temperatures make it difficult for soil to absorb moisture and also increases the risk of fire danger.
“With such warm conditions and clear skies forecast, heat waves will remain a risk,” Dr Feikema said.
“Even just a brief spell of dry and hot weather can raise fire danger levels quickly.”
NSW has recorded its eighth driest and fourth hottest April to November on record, while September was officially the “driest September on record nationally.”
The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre report, released just prior to Christmas, said several months of above-average rainfall would be needed to improve the general dryness across the landscape.
The NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) has set the fire danger warning level to ‘High’ for the Wingecarribee, Illawarra and Shoalhaven regions.
