Drier than average conditions are expected to continue throughout spring in the Southern Highlands, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) latest climate outlook.
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Dry and warm conditions have plagued the region and much of NSW throughout autumn and winter, which senior climatologist Dr Andrew Watkins said exacerbated already below average soil moisture levels.
“It has been unusually windy this winter and that wind, combined with warmer and sunnier days than usual, meant that what little rain did fall, evaporated quickly from soil,” Dr Watkins said.
“Soil moisture levels are now below average and with vegetation drying rapidly, fire season has started around two months earlier than usual for parts of NSW,” he said.
Climatologist Felicity Gamble said winter had been particularly dry for the Southern Highlands and is tracking to be one of the hottest winters on record.
“Mittagong had less than 50 per cent average rainfall and unfortunately, models are indicating a fairly low chance of getting average rainfalls in spring,” Ms Gamble said.
The anticipated drier and warmer than average spring would likely mean that drought conditions will continue and the risk of bushfires is increased.
“An outlook with increased chances of drier conditions indicates areas currently experiencing drought are less likely to see significant respite in the coming three months,” Dr Watkins said.
The 2018 Spring Outlook is the first seasonal outlook produced using a new “state of the art” upgraded climate outlook model.
The new model was created in collaboration with the UK Met Office “uses the physics of the atmosphere, oceans, land and ice and their multiple interactions to calculate likely rainfall and temperature patterns over the months and season ahead.”
Mittagong had less than 50 per cent average rainfall and unfortunately, models are indicating a fairly low chance of getting average rainfalls in spring
With this new model, BoM has said it will begin to issue outlooks more regularly that feature more localised and accurate information.
Current observations indicate El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Diapole could develop in coming months, which would mean less rain.
“El Niño in the summer typically means below average rainfall. Cooling waters off the coast of north-west Australia mean a positive Indian Ocean Diapole could develop during spring and reinforce the effects of El Nino,” Dr Watkins said.
