In terms of their net satisfaction rating, Shorten was now a couple of points ahead of Turnbull, although Turnbull retained a three-point lead as preferred prime minister.

It was claimed to be an important result as it followed the ALP’s announcement on dividend imputation, that had been attacked as “robbing pensioners and self-funded retirees of their tax refunds”, which the poll also revealed was only supported by about one third of voters surveyed.

Labor was also buoyed by having recently won the Batman bi-election in Victoria, somewhat against expectations, against a strong Greens candidate.

All that said, the next federal election, that could be held as early as August 4 (for a half Senate combined House election), will see the polls narrow, as they usually do, once the election is called. 

The timing of the next election is a complicated choice for the government, as a joint House/half Senate election must be held before May 18 next year, but Victoria goes to the polls on November 24, and NSW March 23 next year, with the footy finals in September, and so on.

There are many in the government now very concerned that they haven’t been able to get any “clear air” so far this year, especially with distractions such as the Joyce affair, to allow them to reset their electoral strategy, and start to build some momentum. They also feel Shorten hasn’t been subjected to sufficient scrutiny, especially with some of his internal party and union related issues and division.

They are also concerned that they were again forced to delay their corporate tax package, failing to gain the essential Senate support over the last couple of weeks, now pushing the issue to be considered by the parliament after the May Budget.

The budget now becomes the key, probably defining, battleground. Both sides are promising personal tax cuts. Shorten has already identified billions to spend from his imputation tax decision, also providing him with the capacity to “promise” a lower budget deficit/ bigger surplus. The irony is that it seems the government was also considering the imputation tax policy, but have now ruled it out as a consequence of their attack on Labor.

The tax “debate” is already a muddle, with claims and counterclaims about who is taxing what, and about which side really has the capacity to deliver. Both sides are promising a focus on low-middle income families. In terms of the numbers, this is likely to be very expensive. The danger is that voters will take both sides with a sizeable “grain of salt”. 

From the point of view of good public policy, the imperative is for broad-based reform, across the whole tax system, not partial and selective initiatives that further complicate the system and its fairness. 

This is especially so, given the huge, so far unfunded, expenditure commitments being made by both sides, running well into the 2020s, in education, health, defence, the NDIS, and infrastructure.

I fear a very divisive, but close, contest, riddled with hubris and spin, with perhaps voters even more disenchanted with the two major parties.