Brexit, the decision of the British people to exit the European Community, is an excellent example of how to make a mess of a fundamentally important issue. The real significance of all this is now starting to be recognised.
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Ironically, Britain had the best of both worlds, by having favoured access to the huge European market, the second largest economy in the world, while not being locked into the rigours of the Euro.
This was important in the GFC, when the British authorities had the flexibility to defend their bonds and devalue their exchange rate to cushion the impact of the crisis. They also benefited enormously by being Europe’s major financial centre.
However, the Brexit vote wasn’t driven so much by economics, except for disquiet about the ‘cost of Brussels”, but rather more by concern about the lack of an effective immigration policy, and the potential for mass migration from the Middle East and North Africa.
Importantly, voter turn out in the referendum was dominated by older residents, with most of the youth abstaining. There has been much concern since the vote that exit probably wasn’t in the best interests of Britain.
The exit negotiations are tied to a strict two-year timetable. The PM, Theresa May, in the hope of entering these negotiations in a strong position, forced an early election, arrogantly claiming that she expected something like a 100 seat majority. This time the youth voted, and May now has to survive, day to day, with a minority government, and couldn’t be in a weaker position relative to Europe.
The Europeans, having been concerned that Brexit could lead to the fragmentation of Europe, have now consolidated their position, and are taking a very hard line in negotiations.
Specifically, Britain hoped to deal with trade access and other issues simultaneously, but the Europeans are insisting that three other, difficult, issues be settled first: the position of EU nationals already in the UK, continuing budget obligations, and the intra-Ireland border.
This probably means that no final deal can be wrapped up before Britain is supposed to be ejected from the EU at the end of March 2019.
To complicate matters further for Mrs May, she has tabled the so-called ‘Great Reform Bill’ in the Parliament, a single piece of legislation that repeals the Act under which Britain joined the EU, so that such legislation can be scrapped or amended once Britain is out of the EU. There is debate about the ‘constitutionality’ of this legislation and it could be rejected by the Parliament, which would throw the whole Brexit negotiations into chaos.
Where to from here? Given the tight timeline, the negotiations may need to focus on the possibility of a longer ‘transition period’ but, as difficult as that would be to agree, it would also need to be ratified by all 27 EU Parliaments.
In the circumstances, and particularly given May’s precarious hold on the leadership, it is not impossible to imagine that she is deposed, and another election/referendum is held.
This whole Brexit saga is a clear demonstration of how one needs to be ‘careful what you wish for’. Cameron has already paid a personal price for the referendum idea in the first place. May is now paying the price for her ‘electoral stupidity’. The UK may yet face severe economic consequences, even a recession.